Rockburst and Gas Outburst Forecasting using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework in Longwall Top Coal Caving Faces

Abstract A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to mathematically represent the complex engineering phenomena of rock bursts and gas outbursts for a heterogeneous coal seam. An innovative object-based non-conditional simulation approach used distribute lithological heterogeneity present in seam respect their geological origin. The changing mining conditions during longwall top caving (LTCC) were extracted from coupled numerical model provide statistically sufficient data analysis. interdependencies among abutment stress, pore pressure, volume total emission incremental energy release rate, stochastic variations uncertainty realistically implemented GoldSim software, 100,000 equally likely scenarios simulated using Monte Carlo method determine probability outbursts. results obtained analysis incorporate variability mechanical, elastic reservoir properties due result occurrence bursts, outbursts, safe conditions. represents environment, is resilient are reliable. generic can be suitably modified different underground scenarios, overcoming limitations earlier empirical indices used.